News feed Date: 04 November, 2024
The US election has been building up for some time. It is garnering unprecedented international interest and this, after all, is an event that has already established itself as a global phenomenon. Binu Varghese, RIF Trust’s Regional Director – India is all rapt up in it.
She claims: “From an Indian perspective, whether Harris or Trump wins is largely immaterial. The US EB-5 Investor Visa has long been a favourite of Indian investors no matter the political persuasion of the sitting President.”
“The popularity of this Residency by Investment shows little sign of abating, especially as the US economy remains so strong.”
“Residency and Citizenship by Investment is an industry rooted in stability. Your investment is more secure than, say, a bet at a Las Vegas casino.”
“So, while I don’t expect foreign direct investment into the US to dip, I do foresee greater number of American HNWIs looking into acquiring a new residency or second citizenship. And that all depends on the identity of the next President.”
Although Trump has distanced himself from its publication, the spectre of Project 2025 looms large for Democrats if the election doesn’t go their way. This 922-page Mandate for Leadership represents the “Conservative Promise” and is the brainchild of the uber-conservative Washington, D.C-based Heritage Foundation who have Kevin Roberts as President.
Interestingly, Trump’s running mate, JD Vance has written a foreword for Roberts’ forthcoming Dawn’s Early Light: Taking Back Washington to Save America.
Vance writes: “We are now all realizing that it’s time to circle the wagons and load the muskets.” Project 2025 can be read as a similar call to arms. “To assemble an army of aligned, vetted, trained, and prepared conservatives to go to work on Day One to deconstruct the Administrative State.”
A second Trump term means a return of populism to the White House. This is a politician who openly identifies with the authoritarian Viktor Orbán and the dictatorial Vladimir Putin over Republican predecessors such as Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan.
In a TIME article, Texas-based writer Alejandro Puyana explains accompanying his Venezuelan mother to vote in the US election to forestall a Venezuela-style takeover: “My great fear is that, if Trump wins, there will be an accelerated, systematic chipping away of our democracy.”
One of the worst-case scenarios for Harris supporters is that even if they win, Trump refuses to accept the result. There is a real fear that there might be a repeat of the January 2021 attack on the Capitol from Make America Great Again (Maga) aficionados. Some even speculate that a Trump denial of a US election loss could trigger a new Civil War.
Harris is tipped to win the American women’s vote, with female Republican supporters believed to be secretly casting their ballot with her name on it. Trump has been dogged with accusations of misogyny, particularly given his association with the disgraced Jeffrey Epstein. On a recent chat with conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson, Trump chillingly spoke about former Republican Liz Cheney.
The following section is Trump quoted verbatim: “She is a radical war hawk. Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her, OK? Let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face.”
The majority of American women who will vote for Harris have plenty of concerns over Trump 2.0. They worry about their reproductive rights becoming further eroded.
Danielle Myers, writing for FDI Intelligence, claims this alarm has spread to European investors: “Since the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to an abortion in 2022 by overturning Roe v Wade, 14 states with Republican-controlled legislatures have introduced near-total bans on abortions. European companies and advisors tell fDi that impeding women’s rights plays into their decision-making.”
There’s a lack of faith from Republicans in Harris’ capabilities. She has largely underwhelmed in her role as Vice-President. This Harris scepticism extends to the floating voters of America.
Now, ordinarily according to international affairs specialist Ian Bremmer, that would result in a Trump US election win. Delivering his State of the World 2024 address, Bremmer turns his focus to his home country: “The US elections are now less than two weeks away. I’d say, thank God, but no one’s looking forward to this.”
He continues: “I have no idea who’s going to win. I mean, if you made me bet, I think it’s Trump. I’m saying that to you, not with a lot of conviction, but just because most elections this year are change elections.”
“70% of Americans say they’re not happy with where the country is going. It is very hard to vote for the sitting Vice President when that many people say, I want something different. Trump is something different.”
There’s an anti-incumbency movement in world politics. Rory Stewart mentions this in the acclaimed The Rest is Politics podcast. In the event that the incumbent is not voted out in the US, this is where disgruntled voters should look into investing in a new residency or second citizenship.
So, the first worst-case scenario for Trump followers is the election of someone they consider incompetent. Politics has become more tribal in America with any respect between Democrats and Republicans largely dissipated. For those who aren’t true Blues, another 5-year Democratic term is a nightmare outcome.
Trump HWNI fans will feel a Harris victory hard, in their pocket. The Tax Foundation describes itself as “the world’s leading nonpartisan tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit.” It’s a harbinger of doom when predicting what a Harris win will mean from a taxation perspective.
Its Wednesday, October 16, 2024’s Kamala Harris Tax Plan Ideas: Details and Analysis is a 17-minute read. This comprehensive summary states that: “On tax policy, Harris carries forward much of President Biden’s FY 2025 budget, including higher taxes aimed at businesses and high earners.”
Later, it alleges that “her tax policies would raise top tax rates on corporate and individual income to among the highest in the developed world, slowing economic growth and reducing competitiveness.”
As much as Democrats are apprehensive of the Heritage Foundation, Kevin Roberts’ organization is accusatory over the way America’s traditional values are under attack from a liberal elite. Roberts’ own foreword to the Mandate for Leadership is an all-out assault on a ‘woke agenda’. An agenda that spells danger to the Foundation, to the extent that “the very moral foundations of our society are in peril.”
The Heritage Foundation’s Mandate for Leadership project dates back to 1979. A “20-volume, 3,000-page governing handbook containing more than 2,000 conservative policies to reform the federal government and rescue the American people from Washington dysfunction” guided the transition from the Democratic Jimmy Carter to the Republican Ronald Reagan. It was, in the eyes of the American right, a salvage operation that they were helming.
The 2025 version addresses similar issues to the ones Reagan faced. That of “the socialism of 1970s liberals, and the predatory deviancy of cultural elites.” And so this manifesto “will arm the next conservative President with the same kind of strategic clarity, but for a new age.”
America’s potential new Veep is JD Vance. His Hillbilly Elegy bestseller paints a picture of a disenfranchised American working class. If Trump is not elected, their anger will fire a reality that US HNWIs might want to avoid.
Now, there are American HNWIs on both sides of the political divide in the US. So, whether Harris or Trump is elected President, there are going to be disappointed moneyed Democrats and Republicans. The US election has the potential to both rock and shock American citizens into investing in a new residency or second citizenship.
There are 5 Citizenship by Investment programmes for American entrepreneurs to choose from in the Caribbean. These centre on the Eastern Caribbean region, and there are more similarities than differences. Investors can take their pick from the programmes offered by Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St Kitts and Nevis, and St Lucia.
Date: 04 November, 2024
Posted in: News feed